182
FXUS62 KILM 242321
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
AT TIMES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY NEARER THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS. ALSO, INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE SE NC AND
NE SC COASTS, INCLUDING THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE HIGHEST
TIDES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
HIGH SURF: HIGH SEAS UP TO NEAR 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO 6+ FT SURF HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR E-FACING
BEACHES. WE HAVE RAISED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN 6 FT BREAKERS OCCURRING STARTING
TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE LARGE WAVES COUPLED WITH HIGH WATER
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME EROSION, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST FACING
BEACHES.
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, GUSTING TO ~25 KT DAYTIME SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONTINUES WITH NNE WINDS DIMINISHING
AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FAR OFFSHORE
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH SOME
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. EXPECT A BETTER RISK FOR GALE- FORCE
GUSTS BEYOND 20 NM AND THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THERE. NE
WINDS COUNTER TO THE GULF STREAM WILL RESULT IN VERY
STEEP/HAZARDOUS MARITIME CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE NE
WINDS WILL PERSIST AND DIMINISH SOME THROUGH MID WEEK, MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ALWAYS SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN SUCH SCENARIOS AND
THUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ108.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ054-056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...31
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