254
FXUS62 KILM 250656
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR ALL TIDAL AREAS. THE
GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT
AND SHORTENED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MID WEEK.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER AND COASTAL BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MID WEEK.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE
SC AND SE NC COASTS AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. ALSO, HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AM, WITH THE HIGHEST TIDES IN THE
MORNING.
HIGH SURF: HIGH SEAS UP NEAR 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
6 FT SURF HEIGHTS EARLY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEACHES
OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY. IN ADDITION, THE LARGE WAVES COUPLED
WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME EROSION, ESPECIALLY
FOR E-FACING BEACHES.
MARINE: SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING MARINE
HAZARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND COASTAL BREEZES.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL
BREEZES. GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z SUN THRU 06Z MON: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. VERY LOW RISK OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND LLWS THIS
MORNING. NNE/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, GUSTING TO NEAR 20-25 KT AT
TIMES.
06Z MON THRU THU: VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR CIG
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO COVER FOR THE MARGINAL GALE-FORCE GUSTS INTO
TONIGHT. WE ALSO SHORTENED THE LENGTH OF THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS IT NOW APPEARS GALES SHOULD END LATER TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD NOTE THAT THE NE WINDS COUNTER TO
THE NORTHWARD-FLOWING GULF STREAM WATERS WILL RESULT IN VERY
STEEP/HAZARDOUS MARITIME CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ108.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB
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