462
FXUS62 KILM 260628
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS. CANCELLED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS
INTO MID WEEK.
2) HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRY WEATHER AND COASTAL BREEZES THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK.
PINCHED GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL START TO WEAKEN LATER
TODAY, EASING WINDS A BIT TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE REPRIEVE FROM
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES EARLY WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU CONTINUING ADVERSE
MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS. GRADIENT WEAKENS THU WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
TIDES IN THE MORNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE DECREASING A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THE
MASONBORO INLET BUOY(41110) SHOWS SUBSIDING SEAS, WITH WAVES
AROUND 5.5 FT THIS MORNING. BOTH THE SWELL AND THE WIND WAVE
HAVE DROPPED A GOOD BIT SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE WAVE STEEPNESS
HAS DECREASED. COMPARING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S BEACH REPORTS
WITH 41110 OBSERVATIONS FROM SUNDAY DOES IMPLY SURF HEIGHTS ARE
LIKELY RUNNING BELOW THE 6 FT THRESHOLD FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE BEACHES. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE ENDING OF THE ADVISORY, SURF
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENTS AND SURF UP TO 5 FT WILL STILL BE PRESENT AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRY WEATHER AND COASTAL
BREEZES THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THIS WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK
TREND ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AND NORTH WINDS CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT NORTH WINDS 7-10 MPH
ALONG THE COAST WITH 4-7 MPH INLAND. A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GUSTS 17-20 KT MID
MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR CIG
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
MARINE
PINCHED GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS TO EXPIRE WHICH WAS REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY,
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS EXPIRES AT 12Z. LACK
OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS 20-60 NM AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS AT THE
FEW BUOYS JUST BEYOND 20 NM MAKE A CASE FOR KEEPING THE GAL
WARNING UNTIL 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.
NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
MAINLY FOR SEAS LINGERING OVER 6 FT IN A FEW AREAS. ONCE THE
ADVISORY COMES DOWN, THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 24-30 HOUR WINDOW
WITH NO ADVISORIES. HOWEVER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
EARLY WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU, ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHERLY
SURGE. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THU. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE
AS FAR AS CRITERIA GO, BUT EXPECT SEAS WILL RETURN ABOVE 6 FT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 10-20 NM WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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