359
FXUS62 KILM 271801
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY BEFORE A REINFORCING
HIGH BUILDS DOWN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR GUSTY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK, CONCERNS
REMAIN AT THE COAST. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG, DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS AT EAST-FACING
BEACHES. FOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS, SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH PROLONGED,
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OVER
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES, RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY, BUT BREEZY. ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF RAIN ON LAND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING A
DECK OF LOW STRATUS IN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF THIS CLOUD DECK. KLBT IS LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS WHILE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT KILM AND KFLO. KMYR AND KCRE ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THERE. MVFR MIST MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THE RETURN OF VFR WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RESTRICTIVE CIGS HANG ON THE LONGEST AT
KLBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER WITH GUSTY NE WINDS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW WITH AN ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN SEAS. THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 25 KT. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED DURATION AND
FETCH OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW, ON TOP OF AN ALREADY ELEVATED SEA
STATE (EASTERLY SWELL 4-5 FT), WILL PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE THURSDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE AREA MAY TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM
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