181
FXUS62 KILM 280026
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
826 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION FOR EXPIRATION OF HIGH RIP
RISK TODAY AND ADDITION OF HIGH RIP RISK WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY BEFORE A REINFORCING
HIGH BUILDS DOWN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR GUSTY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK, CONCERNS
REMAIN AT THE COAST. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG, DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS AT EAST-FACING
BEACHES. FOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS, SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH PROLONGED,
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OVER
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES, RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY, BUT BREEZY. ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF RAIN ON LAND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS IN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
THIS CLOUD DECK. CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING OF WORST CONDITIONS
NORTH AND WEST. THE RETURN OF VFR WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS HANG ON THE LONGEST BEING KLBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY
NE WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW WITH AN ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN SEAS. THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 25 KT. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED DURATION AND
FETCH OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW, ON TOP OF AN ALREADY ELEVATED SEA
STATE (EASTERLY SWELL 4-5 FT), WILL PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE THURSDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE AREA MAY TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ILM
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