752
FXUS61 KILN 281830
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AREA IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, THEN CLOUDS MOVE IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT MID/UPPER TEENS IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ONSET AS DIFFERENCES
IN SATURATION OF THE COLUMN AND POSITIONING OF THE BEST AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
INDIANA/WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
CURRENT THINKING IS ONSET OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MORNING
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER, WITH
INITIALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, AND THEN ACCUMULATING
SNOW NEAR/NORTH OF I70 AND NEAR/WEST OF I75 INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
STILL THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF 2” SNOW FROM NEAR RICHMOND, IN
NORTHEAST TO NEAR KENTON, OH AND POINTS NW, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR 4” ALSO IN THIS AREA. WENT A LITTLE BROAD WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
HOLIDAY TRAVEL SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN
STEADIER PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH CUTTING INTO SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA INTO SE INDIANA AND SW OHIO. IF
ANY HEAVIER BANDING OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BEFORE THE EVENING WARM
AIR PUSH, THERE COULD BE AREAS OF >2” ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/ EASTERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE SE OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR, THIS REMAINS THE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A MIX
IN OF RAIN SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A GREATER NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SLOWER ONSET TIME OF PRECIP DURING THE
DAY SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN 1” AND RAIN MIXING IN.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING GUSTY W TO NW WINDS TO
25-30MPH. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW,
BUT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE SE FORECAST AREA, WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM LOW/MID 30S IN THE NW TO NEAR
40 IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE FAST TO APPROACH BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH. IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING MONDAY
EVENING OR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY IN THE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME, DETAILS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND AMOUNTS AT VARIOUS TIME FRAMES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT FOR SOME, HOWEVER THERE COULD ALSO BE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD IMPACT SNOW TOTALS. CONTINUE TO CHECK THE
LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR THE
CLOSER WE GET TO THIS POTENTIAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE BALANCE OF THE SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GREATER CLOUDS TOWARD CMH/LCK WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME ELEVATED WINDS TO NEAR 20KTS IN THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, BRINGING
ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY KDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -RASN FOR KCVG IN THE 18Z-00Z EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LIFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. SNOW MAY BRING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VSBY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>062-070-071.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page