874
FXUS61 KILN 022231
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE
H5 RIDGE PORTION OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS THAT WE WILL FINALLY OBSERVE SOME MODIFICATIONS
IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK, ALLOWING FOR AN H5 TROUGH TO PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE INITIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH, SUGGESTING THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
AFTER THE H5 TROUGH EJECTS TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DO THINK THERE
IS AT LEAST A SLIM POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF RIVER VALLEY BR AND MVFR VSBY
AT KLUK AROUND SUNRISE, BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE PRECLUDED INCLUSION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
THE LINGERING VFR CU WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET,
LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME-TO-TIME
THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD-LAYER TEMP ADVECTION
AND A DRY BL, CU DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SPARSE, IF ANY,
DURING THE DAYTIME. A FEW CIRRUS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE OH VLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NE FLOW AROUND 10-12KTS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF
THE TAF PERIOD, STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AT AROUND 5KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO MORE OUT OF THE E BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOULD STAY GENERALLY 5-8KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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