016
FXUS61 KILN 030603
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TODAY, MOVING DIRECTLY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WARM A
FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPS, WITH THE AREA IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.
SHIFTING INTO THURSDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS A BIT SLOWER TO RETURN, BUT AREA WIDE TEMPERATURES ARE
NOW COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S AS THE WARM UP CONTINUES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DELAYED ARRIVAL
PREVENTS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE LOCAL AREA, DECREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
THIS CHANGES ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN BETTER
SURFACE MOISTURE. DEW POINTS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE MID 60S, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SATURDAY IS TIMING. FOR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA (WEST-CENTRAL OHIO, EAST-CENTRAL
INDIANA), ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD LIKELY TAKE PLACE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH THE OHIO
RIVER AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING IF THE LATER TIMING PREVAILS.
THE TROUGH IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE SLOW. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70, FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE QUITE LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WIND FLOWS ARE QUITE WEAK AND PWAT VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNING. A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE RIVER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS STILL QUITE LOW.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN THEME IS A RETURNING RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TENNESSEE AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BASED ON THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME IS OBSERVED MOST ACROSS THE GEFS MEMBERS, BUT
THERE ARE ALSO SOME ECWMF ENS MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO.
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES, EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT CLOUD LEVEL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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