256
FXUS61 KILN 031709
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE DRY OUT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER HEADING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, WITH MOST OF OUR CWA CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 80S BY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, THE AIR MASS WILL START TO BECOME
MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S THIS WEEKEND. AS A
MORE TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS HANGS AROUND, WE WILL GO THROUGH STRETCH
WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK,
ALLOWING FOR AN H5 TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CAMS WILL
HELP PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT ON COVERAGE/TIMING, BUT GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HAVING THE BEST COVERAGE IN PRECIP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. QPF FOOTPRINT SEEMS TO BE LOWEST BETWEEN
THE OHIO RIVER AND I-70 CORRIDOR AS THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE. WHILE SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT, LOWER CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN FEWER
THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS LIMIT THE HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. THERE
IS SOME SIGNAL THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE OFF NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON
SUNDAY, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW MORE CONSENSUS IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND DRY START
TO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
PRIMARY CLOUDS WILL JUST BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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