895
FXUS61 KILN 051050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST, WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THESE REMNANTS, WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER AT THAT STAGE, WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING. HOW EXTENSIVE THAT WILL BE IS IN QUESTION WHICH MAY AFFECT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CAPE INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG WITH MORE AMBITIOUS GUIDANCE IN THE
1500 J/KG RANGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE BULK SHEAR, BUT TO WHAT DEGREE IS IN QUESTION. A MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HREF, FAVORS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-70. BUT THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
REFS WHICH ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, FROM I-70 TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL OR EVEN A TORNADO.
STORMS WILL WANE LATER IN THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. RENEWED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY
WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SAGGED INTO THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ARCING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A BUILDING RIDGE. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAK, SO THREATS BEYOND LIGHTNING SEEM MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THERE WILL BE A BROAD AXIS OF MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO INCREASE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE WITH WEAKNESSES OR
MINOR DISTURBANCES PASSING AROUND AND THROUGH IT. THUS THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DETAILS OF WHICH DAYS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OR COVERAGE
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY WHEN THE MOST PROMINENT
DISTURBANCE LIFTS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20 KT. CUMULUS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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