535
FXUS61 KILN 052234
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
HAVE DECREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS IT DROPS INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR THE AIRMASS WILL RECOVER WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES - THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON - THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. WITH THE
TAIL OF WEAKENING JET PIVOTING THRU CENTRAL OHIO, THIS WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED REGION FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR EVEN A
TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SKINNY NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING RIDGE BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER DUE TO HEAT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ON THURSDAY
AND THEN LIKELY RISING TO 90 OR ABOVE FOR FRIDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO APPROACH 100 THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY RISE ABOVE 100
FRIDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
ON SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS
TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING, AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED WITH A
PROB30 GROUP. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY, BUT THE
PROBABILITY SEEMS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP,
AND THESE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST. THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AFTER 20Z AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK/KILN, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF REACHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS KCVG/KLUK. WILL ALSO KEEP THIS TO A PROB30 GROUP
RATHER THAN A PREVAILING OR TEMPO MENTION, AS THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
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