173
FXUS61 KILN 061055
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE SECOND ROUND POSSIBLY HAVING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
2) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING 90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
ARE OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS FROM WEST CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL
OHIO. MAIN CONCERN IS CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR
EAST, BUT IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CAN
SOMETIMES MAINTAIN ITSELF AND PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER THAN ANY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE WITH HREF
PROBABILITY OF SURFACE CAPE > 2000 J/KG BEING 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTHWARDS DURING PEAK HEATING. INSTABILITY
WILL DROP OFF TOWARDS AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL BE A ZONE
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR > 30 KT TRANSLATING FROM WEST CENTRAL OHIO INTO
CENTRAL OHIO AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. THIS PROVIDES A
WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN AN BROAD WEST-EAST BAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WIND STILL LOOKS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED HAIL OR EVEN A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING SOUTH OF
I-70, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A
BIT. AND AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE A SHEAR AXIS THAT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT THAT WAS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND ANY REMNANTS WILL LIFT
NORTH BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION. ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BECOME AT
LEAST 1.8 INCHES WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER.
THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN BE AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL FORCING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS WELL AS INTENSITY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE FINALLY MOVES EAST. WITH THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AS WELL AS WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO AROUND 4 KM,
RAIN PROCESSES COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
HUMID AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND GET VERY WARM. FORECAST IS PROBABLY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS GIVEN BIAS IN THE
NBM, BUT NONETHELESS, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT DO REACH 90
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VFR DECK IS ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH KCMH/KLCK.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY COULD AFFECT KDAY AS WELL BUT MORE LIKELY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE. THIS WILL ALL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z
WITH SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND COULD AFFECT KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK AND EVEN POSSIBLY GET AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN. A VFR DECK WILL
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY
WITH SOME GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE
TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHTER LATE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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