614
FXUS61 KILN 062327
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
2) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING 90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO THAT
ARE OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
EXITING THE AREA.
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK
HEATING. FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION ACTING AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SOME OF THE
CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DCAPE VALUES OF 800-900 J/KG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.
WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL DIMINISH. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME TRAINING ALONG THE
EAST-WEST CORRIDOR WITH HREF LPMM SUGGESTING LOCALIZED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE A SHEAR AXIS THAT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALLS OUT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR
WILL BE VERY WEAK, SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDES THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL OFFER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE AND GET VERY WARM.
FORECAST IS PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS GIVEN BIAS IN THE NBM, BUT NONETHELESS,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT DO REACH 90 WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY OH COUNTIES, WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY
35 CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY TAILING OFF TOWARDS KCVG AND KLUC. CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECAYING STORM REACHING KCVG AND KLUC,
BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF MENTIONS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING/DECAYING TREND.
A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF
SITE.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...CMC/AR
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