015
FXUS61 KILN 070208
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY AND REMOVED THE SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
2) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING 90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN GREATLY
CUT GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE LINGERING STORMS CURRENTLY
ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM VAN WERT TO EAST OF KENTON, THEN NORTH OF
DELAWARE AND LICKING COUNTIES WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LIKE THE ONE THAT JUST PASSED VAN WERT WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR STRONG - BUT SUB SEVERE WINDS OF 35-40 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THERE WILL BE A SHEAR AXIS THAT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALLS OUT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR
WILL BE VERY WEAK, SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDES THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL OFFER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE AND GET VERY WARM.
FORECAST IS PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS GIVEN BIAS IN THE NBM, BUT NONETHELESS,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT DO REACH 90 WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CMH AND LCK TERMINALS WILL BE THE ONLY SITES THAT MAINTAIN A
STORM/SHOWER THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ATTM, THESE CELLS LOOK TO MISS
MUCH OF FRANKLIN COUNTY. HOWEVER, ONE STILL STRONG CELL HAS A TRACK
THAT NECESSITATED A PROB30 OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04Z(CMH) AND
05Z(LCK) THROUGH 06Z. FEW TO SCT MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPED BY A BKN
MID LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL STRATUS. SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE REMAINING
TERMINALS, THIS STRATUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL LINGER FOR
QUITE A WHILE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. UPSTREAM CELLS IN CENTRAL
IN CREATING THIS TSTORM BLOWOFF ARE WEAKENING, AND THIS MID-UPPER
CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK APART OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AROUND 5-6KT WILL BE WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, TURN NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK, AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENT STORMS ARE ON MEANDERS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AT CVG/LUK, THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH TOMORROW, SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE
MOST LOCATIONS GOT WORKED OVER TONIGHT - CMH/LCK. HAVE HANDLED THIS
WILL A PROB30 LATE IN THE FORECAST, WITH MVFR CIGS BEING CONDITIONAL
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP. CMH/LCK LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THE AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SHIFTED
NORTHWARD INTO THEIR AREAS. THIS IS A LOW CHANCE, SO IT HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF TAFS AND I EXPECT THE DRY FORECAST TO
SOLIDIFY WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS/AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
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