411
FXUS61 KILN 071048
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDING TOWARDS NOT QUITE SO WARM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL SAG
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A WEST
NORTHWEST-EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD
BE CLOSE TO 1.7 INCHES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT WAVE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START ON MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN TURN EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE 3.5 TO 4 KM. THIS WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. THIS CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK AND
CONVECTION MAY JUST BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO AVOID SUBSTANTIAL
ISSUES, BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE ARE SUPPRESSING THIS RIDGE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A PROGRESSIVE BROAD TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL STILL GET VERY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH READINGS
POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S, BUT 90 MIGHT BE A BIT OF A
REACH. WITH THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARDS NOT QUITE AS WARM, ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL, FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL BUT
THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR IS FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATE IF
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, BUT PROBABILITY IS STILL LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE
FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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