198
FXUS61 KILN 072354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK FRONT BISECTING ILN'S AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE WITH AN AXIS OF PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-1750 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED ZONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE. SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 10 KTS OR LESS. WITH
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TURN EASTWARD
TUESDAY, MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE 3.5KM TO 4KM. AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURNS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ILN/S WESTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
OFFER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS RIDGE LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE BROAD TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET VERY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
READINGS POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS WARM, ALTHOUGH
STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LINE OF CONVECTION SITUATED NW-SE THROUGH ILN BUT MISSING REMAINING
TERMINALS WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT AND NOT AFFECT ANY BUT ILN FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. COVERAGE IS ALREADY DECREASING AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
QUITE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
OVERNIGHT, A SCT CU 4-6KFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH OVERTOPPING MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS. A LIGHT SLY WIND AT CVG/LUK WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL BE IN
MORE OF A NE DIRECTION. ALL WILL BE 6KT OR LESS.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP. SLY WIND WILL BE 7-10KT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE
WITH A MORE NNW-SSE ORIENTATION. THE LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN
THIS PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN A NEWD DIRECTION, AND INDICIES
SUPPORTING STRONG STORMS ARE JUST NOT THERE. THE STORMS WILL BE
PUSHING AGAINST A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS EXITING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. OVC VFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN WESTERN CWA.
IF KLUK HAD RECEIVED PRECIP TODAY, I WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO
INCLUDE THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. THIS SEEMS LESS
LIKELY GIVEN THIS LACK OF MOISTURE, AS WELL AS PASSING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT FINALLY CHANGES THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
THESE PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE
A HIGHER OCCURRENCE IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
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