445
FXUS61 KILN 082317
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
717 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE, LEADING TO VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH THIS TIMING, THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STEADY EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE S/W MAY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL STILL
NEED FOR US TO MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY CONVECTION, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE
RIDGE BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE DEW POINT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
A VIGOROUS TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SUPPRESS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT
QUITE AS WARM BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. SINCE THE RAIN TODAY WAS NEITHER
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY OVER ANY SIGNIFICANT AREA, IT LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL
NOT BE A THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS BEFORE DAYBREAK
LOOK TO BE PREVALENT, AND INDICATIONS OF IFR ARE BEING SHOWN FOR ALL
BUT CMH/LCK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE W-E AND COULD START BEFORE
DAYBREAK IN THE WEST, REACHING CMH/LCK TOWARDS NOON. MODELS ARE QUITE
DIVERGENT IN THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SOME OF THE CAMS BRINGING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TO THE TERMINALS. THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALL INDICATE A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT COVERING EVERYONE. THEY
STILL HAVE A WIDER THAN NORMAL VARIANCE BETWEEN THEM, LEADING TO A
HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT
TIMING/PLACEMENT.
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INDICATION OF PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW AT
CVG/LUK/DAY AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT ILN, WAS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT TO
ADD SHOWERS COMBINED WITH EITHER A TEMPO TS OR PROB30 FOR THE
MORNING. CIGS/VSBY WILL DROP IN THIS PRECIP, AND LOWER CIGS WILL
OCCUR A LITTLE BEFORE ANY PRECIP BEGINS, AND MAINTAIN AN OVC DECK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, LIKELY WAFFLING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
1000' THRESHOLD BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR, LIFTING TO A HIGHER MVFR DECK
TOWARDS EVENING.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10KT WILL SEE SOME GUSTS 18-20KT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOUND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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