720
FXUS61 KILN 090619
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
219 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED AND IS NOW MORE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST INDIANA, AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PASS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
THIS, A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
ARE AT LEAST 4 KM, WHICH INDICATES EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SO
ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE RISK
OF THAT ACCUMULATING SUBSTANTIALLY IN ANY ONE LOCATION AND THUS
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND RESULT IN AN MCS TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT PATH OF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, FROM AN ENSEMBLE PERSPECTIVE THE HREF IS KEEPING
THIS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REFS INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIVER. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE JUST A PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
GET PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONTINENT. LESS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AND
WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IT LOOKS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. PROBABILITY OF AIR TEMPERATURE REACHING 90 REMAINS
LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT), BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, APPARENT
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM WISCONSIN INTO ONTARIO. TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLY
REACH WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP PUSH THIS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY THIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION,
CONVECTION HAS LESS OF A CHANCE TO BECOME ROBUST.
THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEW POINTS FOR THE WEEKEND. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE SO WARM BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST, DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
THESE DEVELOP, EXPECT THEM TO DROP TO IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS, EXCEPT
AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WHERE MVFR SHOULD PERSIST.
A SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z
AND 19Z. SHORTLY AFTER THIS PASSES, CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SCATTER OUT BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, IT APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL START TO REDEVELOP LATE.
OUTLOOK... MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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