360
FXUS63 KILX 141633
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1033 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST DURING THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS LINGER TODAY
ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ARRIVES DURING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE (80-90%) MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR LIKELY
ARRIVES DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG OVER ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING. THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY ENDED, WITH SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. THE DAY WILL BE DREARY AND CHILLY.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, BUT COULD FEEL COOLER THAN THAT AT
TIMES.
COPPLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN LACON
AND PONTIAC WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-57
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF TN/KY. ALOFT A FAIRLY STRONG 554 DM 500 MB
LOW WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL IL EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL IL MAINLY WEST OF I-57. MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF IL OVER WI AND EAST
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET IL AND UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF IA/MO
(ALMOST AS FAR WEST AS KANSAS CITY). TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S FROM GALESBURG TO MACOMB TO MOUNT STERLING
WEST WHERE SW WINDS HAVE SHIFTED WEST TO NW AND STARTING TO BRING
IN A BIT COOLER AIR.
THE 00Z NOV 14 MODEL SUITES BRING LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
IN BY 18Z/NOON WHILE PUSHING OCCLUDED FRONT EAST OF IL BEFORE
15Z/9 AM. LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO 1012 MB AS IT MOVES TO SW OF
CLEVELAND IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO OHIO AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY 00Z/6 PM AND NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAWN
FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY LUNCH TIME. THOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY WEST TO NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH MUCH OF TODAY. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURES
RISE WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING NW WINDS,
WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
STRONG INVERSION DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST.
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY WITH AREAS EAST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS DIMINISH DURING TONIGHT
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO IL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME
UPPER 30S FAR WESTERN CWA AND NEAR 45F ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN
IL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL MID SAT MORNING WHERE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER NEAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND RH'S NEAR 100%.
LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY NICE LATE FALL WEEKEND FOR THE AREA AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY
WITH SSE WINDS PICKING UP TO BREEZIER LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-57. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.
EVEN MILDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SW
FLOW THOUGH CLOUDIER SKIES WITH SOUTHEAST IL HAVING BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING MORE SUN ON SUNDAY.
A WX SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND PASSES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY
WHILE PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SE INTO CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SAT AFTERNOON OVER IL RIVER VALLEY AND MORE MORE OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY FROM I-70 NORTH.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO EJECT NE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY AND LIFT TOWARD THE IA/NE BORDER BY DAWN TUE. THIS WILL
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WE COULD SEE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH AMOUNTS. WE MAY GET IN A LULL FOR RAIN CHANCES ON TUE
ESPECIALLY BY TUE AFTERNOON AS MAIN MOISTURE/LIFT PASS EAST AND
NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. MILD HIGHS MON IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND STILL
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-55 AND UPPER 50S FROM I-55 NW. WILL SEE
BREEZY SE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BREEZY SW WINDS TUE. BREEZY
WEST WINDS WED TO BRING IN COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 50S SE IL.
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS DIFFER WITH TRACK OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE MIDWEST BY THU. STAYED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS OF MODELS WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WED/THU ALONG WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING DURING 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEK. HIGHS NEXT THU ONLY
AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F THU NIGHT.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO LOW MVFR RANGE HAVE OCCURRED
RECENTLY, AND A FEW SMALL AREAS EVEN SAW THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BRIEFLY. IN GENERAL THOUGH, ANY IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY, A MORE GENERAL LIFTING OF
CEILINGS TO ABOVE 1,000 FEET IS EXPECTED, AND ABOVE 2,000 FEET
TOWARD LATE EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE MOST LIKELY
DURING THE FEW FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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