037
FXUS63 KILX 161150
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING:
HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW CLOUDS THAT PERSISTED ACROSS INDIANA AND FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS
YESTERDAY HAVE STEADILY ADVANCED W/NW ACROSS THE KILX CWA OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 09Z/3AM IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE
CLOUDS HAVE NOW REACHED A LACON...TO LINCOLN...TO SPRINGFIELD
LINE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING E/SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE, IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BEFORE DAWN AND STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD FEATURED WINDS VEERING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSED: HOWEVER, THE 00Z NOV 16
SUITE NOW MAINTAINS A DISTINCT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT,
AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT AS READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MEAGER: HOWEVER, ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
STALLING BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO PONTIAC LINE LATE TONIGHT. WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING S/SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CREATE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. GIVEN RISING UPPER HEIGHTS,
LIMITED SUNSHINE, AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND LIFTS INTO
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OZARKS ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS FEATURING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200J/KG SHIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE DIURNAL TIMING IS UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION, THINK THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT
TO MENTION AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE OTHER BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO THE WEST AND THE RESULTING TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
S/SW WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S.
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA PHASES
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE NW OF ILLINOIS...CREATING A DEEP LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER
VARYING SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING SYSTEM: HOWEVER, CONSENSUS INDICATES
THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER ILLINOIS...THEN PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA
BY THURSDAY. WITH COLDER AIR SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, A
COLD RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN INTO THE LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
GENERALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS AS THE DETAILS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AFTER THAT, CHILLY
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WITH E/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE.
THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GET SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA
ONCE WINDS VEER TO S/SW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SPEED OF THIS PROCESS REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT BASED ON THE
RAP/HRRR SOLUTION...HAVE IMPROVED CEILINGS TO VFR AT KSPI BY 07Z,
THEN FURTHER NORTH TO KPIA/KBMI BY 08Z/09Z. HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE E/SE AT 5-10KT, THEN WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO S/SW
LATE TONIGHT.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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