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FXUS63 KILX 171738
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING: HOWEVER,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40MPH.
- AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
CENTRAL IOWA WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLING JUST N/NW OF
THE KILX CWA. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/WEAK RADAR ECHOES
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT: HOWEVER, HAVE NOT SEEN ANY UPSTREAM OBS
REPORTING RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. 00Z KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR...WITH 850MB RH VALUES
DROPPING TO A BONE-DRY 2%. MOST CAMS GENERALLY INDICATE A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WEAK RADAR ECHOES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT AM SKEPTICAL OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT, HAVE CARRIED JUST SCATTERED SPRINKLES ALONG/NORTH OF
I-72 THROUGH THE MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO EL PASO
LINE WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED. THANKS
TO S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER 60S.
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASES, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE EVENING...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
MODEL CONSENSUS, HAVE MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING, THEN HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG/SOUTHWEST
OF A CANTON...TO DECATUR...TO EFFINGHAM LINE TOWARD DAWN MONDAY.
THE TEXAS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A BAND OF WAA PRECIP WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH BY MORNING, THEN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC GUIDANCE
INDICATE GUSTS REACHING 30-40MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THANKS TO STRONG WAA, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, A BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE W/SW MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS, SO HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVE.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 60S. AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES
WITH A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS PROCESS AND WHETHER ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE 00Z NOV 17 GFS NOW SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY
SOLUTION, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
REMAINING TO THE E/NE OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH, WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PIVOTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE KILX CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GEM CONSENSUS. THINK THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE WILL GENERALLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME WHEN THINGS MAY COOL JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY, AND WITH WINDS
GUSTING 30-35MPH, WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AFTER THAT, CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN
LOW VFR CEILINGS, DUE TO A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE, PERHAPS RESULTING IN BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS BY 00Z, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WRITTEN TAFS.
A MORE DEFINITIVE PUSH OF MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE BY (OR JUST PRIOR)
TO 06Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS OUT OVER THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATE BETWEEN
06Z-12Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE BEYOND 12Z
AS RAIN SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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