342
FXUS63 KILX 190940
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
340 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 35-40MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STEADILY DECREASING
THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. IN FACT, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY SEE THE
FIRST SNOW FLURRIES OF THE UPCOMING SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
09Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 982MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS. THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE
KILX CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST INTO
INDIANA, WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST
OF I-57. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CLEAR SLOT PUNCHING
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PARTIAL CLEARING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER
W/NW, LOW CLOUDS ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW...RESULTING IN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS PRESENTLY BLANKETING THE W/NW CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE FAR
NORTH AROUND GALESBURG AND LACON TOWARD MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS DRY ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES IN
EARNEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG/GUSTY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO NEAR 40MPH: HOWEVER, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS, THE GUSTS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKS TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, ONE MORE MILD DAY WILL BE OBSERVED BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN
SHIFT BRINGS A FALL CHILL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.
AS WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY, COLDER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL PHASE WITH
A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS, ENOUGH SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ON THE S/SW FLANK OF THE LOW TO POTENTIALLY
TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL OF COURSE BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND COLDER
CONDITIONS AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOW THEN PIVOTING W/SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO INDIANA ON THURSDAY. LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E/NE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR WEST AS A PEORIA TO
EFFINGHAM LINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES
ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND THE ANTECEDENT VERY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES, THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BEYOND
TRACE AMOUNTS REMAINS VERY LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW CHANCES,
W/NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH WILL CREATE WIND-CHILLS AS LOW AS THE
UPPER TEENS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES HOVERING IN THE 20S
ON THURSDAY.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER E/NE, THE WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY:
HOWEVER, CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE MODIFIES AND TEMPS RETURN TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES, MAINLY EAST OF I-57, BUT WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS BACK TO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY, WITH SOME
EMBEDDED IFR-MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. A SLOT OF PARTIAL CLEARING
AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS TRAILS BEHIND THIS, AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 08Z-10Z, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOW
CIGS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER A FEW HOURS, AT LEAST FOR KPIA
NORTHWESTWARD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 15Z. WINDS SSE 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS INITIALLY,
SHIFTING TO SW AND DECREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS BY
10Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 00Z, WITH
UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED BY THEN.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061.
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