574
FXUS63 KILX 201149
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
549 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FIRST MINOR SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS ON THE WAY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE) OF OVER ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A KEWANEE...TO
LINCOLN...TO ROBINSON LINE.
- WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST, HAVE CARRIED POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-55 THROUGH 8AM BEFORE THE SHOWERS PUSH INTO
INDIANA. ONCE THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDED 20-30 POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH OF
A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE FOR LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER TO THE
MIDDLE 50S SOUTH OF I-70. AS A SECONDARY WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH, SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS A RUSHVILLE...TO
TAYLORVILLE...TO ROBINSON LINE TONIGHT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. A DUSTING OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...THEN WILL PIVOT W/SW ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN BRISK NW WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30-40MPH ON THURSDAY. GIVEN EARLY MORNING AIR TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S, CORRESPONDING WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL INITIALLY
BE IN THE TEENS BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE 20S BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW INITIALLY, WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS, DYNAMIC
COOLING OF THE PROFILE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A PAXTON TO PARIS LINE WHERE
00Z NOV 20 HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A GREATER THAN
60% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY
DROP FURTHER W/SW WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER. GIVEN VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN THE AIR TEMPERATURE
IS ABOVE FREEZING, AM ONLY EXPECTING A MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY SURFACES MAINLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A PAXTON TO PARIS
LINE. ELSEWHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
ONCE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
DECREASE, AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON FRIDAY TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF NOTE WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. 00Z NOV 20 MODELS ARE MOSTLY DRY, SO
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS
LOW.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS/SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TIMING TOOLS,
HAVE MAINTAINED SHOWERS AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI UNTIL 13Z. AFTER
THAT, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA PIVOTS INTO
THE AREA. BASED ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE INTRODUCED A VFR
OVERCAST AT KPIA BY 22Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY AROUND 23Z.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BECOME W/SW AND GUST 25-30KT FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
W/NW BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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