659
FXUS63 KILX 151801
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIZZLE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-72, INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME SEASONABLE BY MIDWEEK, THEN TURN
MUCH COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS ENCOUNTERED
SURFACE RIDGING AND EVOLVED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE NORTH OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE WHERE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL HAVE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.
A FEW COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE
VISIBILITY IMPROVED, WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON. WEAK FLOW AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH QPF HAS
COME DOWN QUITE A BIT DUE TO A SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE SURFACE LOW'S
TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WHERE BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE.
NMA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THIS MORNING, THERE IS SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-72.
THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF A
SCHUYLER TO MCLEAN COUNTY LINE. WE ARE IN THE SHORTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR, WITH A DECREASED SUN ANGLE. THIS IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN AS TO
WHEN THE FOG WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CWA. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY LINGER
INTO THE LATE MORNING (~17-18Z). HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, GETTING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE WARMEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 40S.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE DRIER. AFTER THE DRIZZLE END THIS MORNING, WE
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING, SO ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GONE DOWN SINCE
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT UP TO 0.5 INCH, THE
GREATEST TOTALS BEING SOUTH OF I-70.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING. AS OF
NOW, STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A LONG BREAK IN THE ACTIVE,
WET WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAX OUT MONDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS. THEN
THEY WILL BEGIN TO DROP BACK OFF FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. IT'S
LOOKING LIKE A COLD START TO ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, YIELDING IMPROVING CONDITIONS, REACHING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. AFTER THIS, A
CHANCE OF RAIN, ALONG WITH IFR OR BRIEFLY WORSE VSBY IN FOG, AND
CIGS LOWERING TO LIFR IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOOK IMPROVE TOWARD
18Z AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY BY 00Z, THEN SHIFTING TO WESTERLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS BY 18Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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