255
FXUS63 KILX 152045
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT FOG REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK,
THEN TURN MUCH COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN US, WITH AN OPEN TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN IL/WISCONSIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF
THE AREA, REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
INCHING NORTHWARD AT A GOOD PACE. HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND FILL LOW STRATUS BACK IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHOW SPORADIC SUB 1 MILE VISIBILITIES, WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME OF THIS BUILDING INTO COUNTIES WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER THIS EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE ISN'T
INITIALIZING CURRENT CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY WELL. IF FOG DOES
REDEVELOP, IT SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG AS WINDS PICK UP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP IN A WING OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NON-DIURNALLY WARM OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON
MONDAY PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR GALESBURG TO LOW 60S IN
LAWRENCEVILLE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR NORTH,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEEN. IN FACT, DUE TO
SHALLOWER MOISTURE COLUMNS FURTHER NORTH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRIZZLE BEING MORE FAVORED NORTH OF I-72, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" NORTH
OF I-72.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS GOING INTO MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIED TO A LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE TAIL END
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY LATE
IN THE WEEK, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP BETTER
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF HERE FOR
NOW, BUT THE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND BEARS WATCHING.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, YIELDING IMPROVING CONDITIONS, REACHING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. AFTER THIS, A
CHANCE OF RAIN, ALONG WITH IFR OR BRIEFLY WORSE VSBY IN FOG, AND
CIGS LOWERING TO LIFR IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOOK IMPROVE TOWARD
18Z AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY BY 00Z, THEN SHIFTING TO WESTERLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS BY 18Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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