457
FXUS63 KILX 160524
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT FOG REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING IN WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK,
THEN TURN MUCH COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THIS EVENING, DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
IN PARTICULAR HAVE SEEN SOME OF THE MOST DENSE FOG SO FAR WITH
SEVERAL SITES AND WEBCAMS SHOWING VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG THIS
EARLY IN THE EVENING, BUT MOST HAVE FOG EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH 3AM, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAY HELP TO CHURN UP THE FOG AT TIMES ADD
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FOG TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN US, WITH AN OPEN TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN IL/WISCONSIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF
THE AREA, REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
INCHING NORTHWARD AT A GOOD PACE. HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND FILL LOW STRATUS BACK IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHOW SPORADIC SUB 1 MILE VISIBILITIES, WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME OF THIS BUILDING INTO COUNTIES WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER THIS EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE ISN'T
INITIALIZING CURRENT CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY WELL. IF FOG DOES
REDEVELOP, IT SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG AS WINDS PICK UP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP IN A WING OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NON-DIURNALLY WARM OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON
MONDAY PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR GALESBURG TO LOW 60S IN
LAWRENCEVILLE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR NORTH,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEEN. IN FACT, DUE TO
SHALLOWER MOISTURE COLUMNS FURTHER NORTH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRIZZLE BEING MORE FAVORED NORTH OF I-72, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" NORTH
OF I-72.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS GOING INTO MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIED TO A LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE TAIL END
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY LATE
IN THE WEEK, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP BETTER
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF HERE FOR
NOW, BUT THE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND BEARS WATCHING.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOUPY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH LOW STRATUS, FOG,
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND MAY HELP TO IMPROVE
VISIBILITY FROM FOG WHILE ON STATION. OTHERWISE, FOG, POSSIBLY
DENSE AT TIMES, WILL EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PICKING UP INTO THE LOW 20KT RANGE. THIS
WILL HELP IMPROVES LOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ044>046-053>057-
061>063-066-067.
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