153
FXUS63 KILX 162325
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
525 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY MIDWEEK, THEN MUCH COLDER
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-74.
- A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) THURSDAY EVENING IN
AREAS NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO PARIS LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EARLIER FOG HAS BEEN SCOURED OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS ROUGHLY
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE THE I-57 CORRIDOR. LOW STRATUS IS STILL
NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
ANOTHER POCKET OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TIED TO AN UPPER WAVE, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THIS EVENING
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WAVY BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SENDING A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE MIDWEST. THE FIRST WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S WILL FAVOR
A COLD RAIN FOR MOST, BUT SUBFREEZING WETBULBS COULD ALLOW A CHANGE
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR BRIEFLY ALL SNOW, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-74. LITTLE TO NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT CURRENT TIME, BLENDED (NBM) AND
ENSEMBLE (LREF) GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT A 20% CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF
SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO PARIS LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL GRIP THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING
MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
THE TEENS FOR WHAT PROMISES TO BE A RAW DAY. THIS COLD WEATHER WILL
THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE ARE NOT FORMALLY ADVERTISING
ADDITIONAL SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS A SMALL SUBSET OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY IN
AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS A QUINCY TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. FOR NOW WE'LL
CALL IT A VERY SMALL (10%) CHANCE.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CREEPS UP BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND WARMER, THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF SAID WARMUP VARIES AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. RIGHT
NOW, THE ENS/GEPS OFFER A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER AND LESS ROBUST WARMUP BY
MONDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GEFS IS LESS DEEP AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH IS RESULTING IN A FASTER
AND MORE VIGOROUS WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAN ON
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FOR OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WHICH BRINGS US
WELL INTO THE 40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALBANOS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH
IN MAGNITUDE. WINDS WILL BACK THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING ON
STATION IS CURRENTLY LOW, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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