677
FXUS63 KILX 171707
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1107 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVES IN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW IS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-72, WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF 0.1
INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF I-74.
- TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE, THEN MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS A
20-50% OF 0.1 INCH NORTH OF A MACOMB TO CHAMPAIGN LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THIS MORNING IS A CHANGE OF PACE. THERE ISN'T ANY DENSE FOG BEING
REPORTED OR ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL MORNING,
WITH CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT IN FAR SE IL), AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER,
THIS WON'T LAST. HIGHS TODAY IN UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. BY LATE THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND
START A COOLING PATTERN. THE P-TYPE COULD BE TRICKY. P-TYPE MAY
SWITCH AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RIDING THE FREEZING LINE. NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-72 SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-72, WITH
A 20-40% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF I-74, BEFORE WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING. QPF ISN'T MUCH, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL IL. THIS TIME BEING
MAINLY SNOW BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED BRIEF PERIOD OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-72 FOR
THIS ROUND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL. THE LREF 00Z.17
SHOWS 20-50% OF 0.1 INCH NORTH OF A MACOMB TO CHAMPAIGN LINE. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT, COLDER TEMPERATURES (BELOW NORMAL) ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, GIVING US A WELL DESERVED BREAK. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, COLDER TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY, HIGHS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
POSSIBLY THE 40S BY MID WEEK, LEADING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL CHRISTMAS.
TYPICAL AVERAGE TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS IN CENTRAL IL IS UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S (AROUND FREEZING) FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK SYSTEM, BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING,
BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM SPREADS -RA IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INITIALLY CEILINGS TO BE VFR, BUT FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS HAVE
INCREASED NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR, AND CARRIED THIS AT KBMI/KCMI
AFTER 14-15Z. PRECIP TYPE WILL BECOME TRICKY LATER TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
RASN MIX THERE, BUT IF A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCURS, A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LOWER VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-12 KT BEHIND THE SYSTEM, FROM THE NORTHWEST WED.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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