665
FXUS63 KILX 190930
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WILL BRING BREEZY WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILLS TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
GOOD MORNING! THIS MORNING WE SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START TO DIG INTO
ILLINOIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CAN BE FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS
RIGHT NOW. AS IT MAKES ITS WAY OVER, THE FIRST THING WE WILL NOTICE
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION COMES IN THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z.
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ARE THE EXPECT P-TYPE, AS
INITIALLY WAA IS THE CAUSE. COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL
BE WHERE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FOCUSED. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST, A SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE LOW ROTATES INTO CENTRAL IL
TOMORROW MORNING, SWITCHING US TO CAA. THIS IS WHEN OUR GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE FURTHEST NORTH
COUNTIES OF THE CWA (MAXED AROUND STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES).
ACCUMULATIONS ARE QUITE MINIMAL (OR NON-EXISTANT) SOUTH OF I-74.
HREF 00Z.19 PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A 50-60% CHANCE OF QUARTER
OF AN INCH FOR THIS AREA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IL COULD SEE
SOME LIGHTER FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
A 700 MB FGEN MAX LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH, SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK,
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF
SNOW. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FGEN INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION, WITH
MOISTURE BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT LIFT BEING SUFFICIENT.
BUT WAIT... THERE'S MORE! WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME COLD WIND CHILLS AS THIS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENS OVER THE
STATE. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 25-35 MPH TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THAT
MORNING.
ONCE THIS MOVES OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER WEATHER SETS UP AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. BY LATE WEEK, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S OR EVEN (MAYBE) 60S. CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
HOLIDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MVFR CIGS REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM AROUND I-74 NORTHWARD, SHOWING
LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, HAVE KEPT VFR FOR KSPI
AND KDEC THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT KEPT MVFR FOR KPIA-KBMI-KCMI INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING, BRINGING PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND I-74 NORTHWARD, WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
AROUND N 8 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z,
BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY 18Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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