625
FXUS63 KILX 191103
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WILL BRING BREEZY WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILLS TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
GOOD MORNING! THIS MORNING WE SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START TO DIG INTO
ILLINOIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CAN BE FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS
RIGHT NOW. AS IT MAKES ITS WAY OVER, THE FIRST THING WE WILL NOTICE
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION COMES IN THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z.
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ARE THE EXPECT P-TYPE, AS
INITIALLY WAA IS THE CAUSE. COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL
BE WHERE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FOCUSED. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST, A SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE LOW ROTATES INTO CENTRAL IL
TOMORROW MORNING, SWITCHING US TO CAA. THIS IS WHEN OUR GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE FURTHEST NORTH
COUNTIES OF THE CWA (MAXED AROUND STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES).
ACCUMULATIONS ARE QUITE MINIMAL (OR NON-EXISTANT) SOUTH OF I-74.
HREF 00Z.19 PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A 50-60% CHANCE OF QUARTER
OF AN INCH FOR THIS AREA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IL COULD SEE
SOME LIGHTER FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
A 700 MB FGEN MAX LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH, SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK,
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF
SNOW. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FGEN INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION, WITH
MOISTURE BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT LIFT BEING SUFFICIENT.
BUT WAIT... THERE'S MORE! WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME COLD WIND CHILLS AS THIS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENS OVER THE
STATE. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 25-35 MPH TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THAT
MORNING.
ONCE THIS MOVES OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER WEATHER SETS UP AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. BY LATE WEEK, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S OR EVEN (MAYBE) 60S. CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
HOLIDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN LOWERED
CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL START AFFECTING PIA BY 21Z. BMI/CMI
WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 23Z-01Z. SPI AND DEC WILL BE LAST,
WITH THEIR TIMING AROUND 05Z. PIA/BMI CAN SEE A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THIS EVENING, STARTING OUT AS DZ THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SN LATER ON. CMI CAN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SNRA,
BEFORE SHIFTING TO SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL GET HAS KEPT THE PROB30 IN THE
FORECAST, INSTEAD OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS. MODELS AREN'T GIVING A
CLEAR PICTURE AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT STAY
NORTH OF THE SITES.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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