632
FXUS63 KILX 191707
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1107 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WILL BRING BREEZY WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILLS TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
GOOD MORNING! THIS MORNING WE SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START TO DIG INTO
ILLINOIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CAN BE FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS
RIGHT NOW. AS IT MAKES ITS WAY OVER, THE FIRST THING WE WILL NOTICE
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION COMES IN THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z.
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ARE THE EXPECT P-TYPE, AS
INITIALLY WAA IS THE CAUSE. COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL
BE WHERE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FOCUSED. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST, A SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE LOW ROTATES INTO CENTRAL IL
TOMORROW MORNING, SWITCHING US TO CAA. THIS IS WHEN OUR GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE FURTHEST NORTH
COUNTIES OF THE CWA (MAXED AROUND STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES).
ACCUMULATIONS ARE QUITE MINIMAL (OR NON-EXISTANT) SOUTH OF I-74.
HREF 00Z.19 PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A 50-60% CHANCE OF QUARTER
OF AN INCH FOR THIS AREA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IL COULD SEE
SOME LIGHTER FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
A 700 MB FGEN MAX LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH, SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK,
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF
SNOW. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FGEN INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION, WITH
MOISTURE BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT LIFT BEING SUFFICIENT.
BUT WAIT... THERE'S MORE! WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME COLD WIND CHILLS AS THIS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENS OVER THE
STATE. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 25-35 MPH TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THAT
MORNING.
ONCE THIS MOVES OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER WEATHER SETS UP AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. BY LATE WEEK, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S OR EVEN (MAYBE) 60S. CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
HOLIDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN IL TONIGHT. REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS WILL 10-14 KT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL PROMOTE 25-30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS OVER IA ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT KPIA/KBMI
THIS AFTERNOON AND KCMI BY EARLY EVENING, BUT NOT REACH KSPI/KDEC
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR I-74 THIS
EVENING, BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR
VISIBILITY EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR IN A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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