146
FXUS63 KILX 192000
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
IL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST,
A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WI AND ANOTHER ENTERING SW MN. 18Z
SURFACE MAP SHOWED 1012 MB ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WERE GUSTING UP TO 30
MPH WEST OF THE IL RIVER, BRINGING IN SEASONABLY MILD MID/UPPER
30S 1 PM TEMPERATURES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
HAS BEEN CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO FAR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAMS INDICATE LEAD WAVE OF LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING, BEFORE A LULL AHEAD OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY VORT MAX WHICH OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE CWA (EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHWEST) AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW,
AND WE EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS WITH
THE "HIGHER" AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR, TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN A 3 AM
TO 3 PM WINDOW, AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z HREF. LOW DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH MID/UPPER 20S LOWS AND FRIDAY'S MID 30S
HIGHS, WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHTER SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CROSSES THE MIDWEST.
RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP SUNDAY BEHIND THE RIDGE, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ALREADY PUSHING READINGS BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN IL TONIGHT. REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS WILL 10-14 KT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL PROMOTE 25-30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS OVER IA ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT KPIA/KBMI
THIS AFTERNOON AND KCMI BY EARLY EVENING, BUT NOT REACH KSPI/KDEC
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR I-74 THIS
EVENING, BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR
VISIBILITY EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR IN A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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