962
FXUS63 KILX 200543
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
IL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
EVENING RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND
A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 30S, WHICH IS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL
END, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL DRIZZLE
CONTINUING, WHICH COULD FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES LOWER. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL WAVE STILL OVER
MN WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO IL, AND THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL FROM SPRINGFIELD TO EFFINGHAM NORTHWARD.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30
MPH STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP.
37
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ITEMS OF INTEREST,
A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WI AND ANOTHER ENTERING SW MN. 18Z
SURFACE MAP SHOWED 1012 MB ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WERE GUSTING UP TO 30
MPH WEST OF THE IL RIVER, BRINGING IN SEASONABLY MILD MID/UPPER
30S 1 PM TEMPERATURES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
HAS BEEN CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO FAR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAMS INDICATE LEAD WAVE OF LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING, BEFORE A LULL AHEAD OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY VORT MAX WHICH OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE CWA (EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHWEST) AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW,
AND WE EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS WITH
THE "HIGHER" AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR, TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN A 3 AM
TO 3 PM WINDOW, AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z HREF. LOW DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH MID/UPPER 20S LOWS AND FRIDAY'S MID 30S
HIGHS, WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHTER SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CROSSES THE MIDWEST.
RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP SUNDAY BEHIND THE RIDGE, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ALREADY PUSHING READINGS BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS
BY 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AROUND KPIA AND KBMI UNTIL AROUND 09Z UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND DEEPENS CLOUD COVER, RESULTING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW ARE
ALONG THE I-74 TERMINALS 10Z-16Z, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CIGS LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 15Z, HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL 00Z-02Z. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY 08Z, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AND
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 22Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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