410
FXUS63 KILX 211641
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES TURNING MILD THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA
OR NEARBY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER WHERE PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (BASES 3-5K FT)
WAS OVER PARTS OF CHRISTIAN, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING BUT DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING. 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER AND RIDGING ACROSS WI AND WESTERN IL WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER LOWER MI AND NEAR THE IN/OH BORDER BY
06Z/MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE REST OF
TODAY WITH JUST FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN CWA FROM I-74 NORTH DURING THIS
EVENING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHEAST
IL AT 1030 AM, WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST IL BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NE
WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THERE INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE-ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ATOP OF THIS IS A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUD LAYER SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, TIED TO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SO FAR THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST READINGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-74 WHERE THERE
IS A SNOWPACK. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS UPWARD BY A FEW
DEGREES WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLANKET THE AREA TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME PINCHED BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WITH A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE LOWEST 2-3 KM BECOMING SATURATED MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-70 WITH
THE MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS. THE PARENT
UPPER WAVE WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA AND OPENING THE
DOOR FOR A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSITIONING DRIZZLE TO RAIN AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING A LOW CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATON IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STAY MILD BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LOT WAVIER
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN LIFTING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION DAILY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT AS OF NOW WITH
0.25-0.50" CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STICKING AROUND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL PASSING CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH A PAIR OF UPPER SHORTWAVES.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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