143
FXUS63 KILX 211749
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES TURNING MILD THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA
OR NEARBY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER WHERE PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (BASES 3-5K FT)
WAS OVER PARTS OF CHRISTIAN, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING BUT DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING. 1034-1037 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/IL/WI BORDER AND RIDGING ACROSS WI AND
WESTERN IL WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER LOWER MI AND NEAR THE
IN/OH BORDER BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
SUNSHINE REST OF TODAY WITH JUST FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN CWA FROM I-74
NORTH DURING THIS EVENING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
LOWER 30S IN SOUTHEAST IL AT 1030 AM, WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST IL BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THERE INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE-ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ATOP OF THIS IS A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUD LAYER SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, TIED TO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SO FAR THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST READINGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-74 WHERE THERE
IS A SNOWPACK. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS UPWARD BY A FEW
DEGREES WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLANKET THE AREA TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME PINCHED BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WITH A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE LOWEST 2-3 KM BECOMING SATURATED MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-70 WITH
THE MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS. THE PARENT
UPPER WAVE WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA AND OPENING THE
DOOR FOR A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSITIONING DRIZZLE TO RAIN AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING A LOW CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATON IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STAY MILD BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LOT WAVIER
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN LIFTING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION DAILY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT AS OF NOW WITH
0.25-0.50" CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STICKING AROUND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z/NOON SUNDAY. 1034-1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHERN WI INTO NW IL AND FAR EASTERN IOWA WILL HAVE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER IL BY SUNSET AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER AS NORTH TO NE WINDS 3-7 KTS SHIFT
EAST TO SE DURING MID/LATE EVENING. WINDS VEER SOUTH TO SSE SUNDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-23 KTS AFTER
16Z/10 AM SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVER WI AND TRACKING SE WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS SKIRTING
NE TERMINALS ALONG I-74 AFTER SUNSET FOR TONIGHT. MORE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page