521
FXUS63 KILX 152119
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
319 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE DUSTING
OF SNOW FROM AROUND I-74 NORTHWARD.
- A BRIEF WARM-UP WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 10 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT (60 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER).
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY (60 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER) FRIDAY NIGHT
EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN IS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
IL TONIGHT, AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING A
DUSTING OVER A TENTH INCH NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74 (UP TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE). TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 10-11 PM UNTIL 3-5 AM.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS, BRINGING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE VIA THE SOUTHWEST US FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN UNTIL NEAR WHEN PRECIPITATION ENDS AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEAR A
QUARTER INCH EAST OF I-55 ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS,
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING DOWN TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND HIGHS BREAKING THE
FREEZING MARK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 40 FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE INITIAL ONE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR THAT COULD BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY, AND CLOSER TO TEN
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO, AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILLS TO APPROACH -15.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH PAST CENTRAL IL TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND LOWER CIGS APPROACHING 3000 FT
AGL, MAINLY FOR THE I-74 TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI-KCMI. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HEIGHT OF CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN -SHSN. ANY BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD
LIKELY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. WEST WINDS AT THE 2000 FT
LEVEL LOOK TO REACH AROUND 40 KTS FROM 06Z-09Z, AND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS SW 07-14KTS UNTIL
AROUND 09Z, THEN SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY AROUND 15Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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