126
FXUS63 KILX 160539
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE DUSTING
OF SNOW FROM AROUND I-74 NORTHWARD.
- A BRIEF WARM-UP WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 10 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT (60 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER).
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY (60 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER) FRIDAY NIGHT
EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
ALREADY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS/WX GRIDS IN THE
FORECAST. RETURNS SEEN ON MOSAIC RADAR, BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS,
PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE HIGHER RETURNS. ALSO
APPEARS THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO OVERCOME...WHICH
IS EVIDENT BY THE HIGH BASE OF THE CLOUDS. SO, TRIMMED POPS/WX
AND MODIFIED WHERE FLURRIES ARE MENTIONED. NO FURTHER UPDATE IS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IF FLURRIES START APPEARING, THEN WILL
HAVE TO EXPAND THE AREA WHERE FLURRIES ARE MENTIONED.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN IS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
IL TONIGHT, AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING A
DUSTING OVER A TENTH INCH NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74 (UP TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE). TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 10-11 PM UNTIL 3-5 AM.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS, BRINGING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE VIA THE SOUTHWEST US FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN UNTIL NEAR WHEN PRECIPITATION ENDS AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEAR A
QUARTER INCH EAST OF I-55 ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS,
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING DOWN TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND HIGHS BREAKING THE
FREEZING MARK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 40 FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE INITIAL ONE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR THAT COULD BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY, AND CLOSER TO TEN
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO, AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILLS TO APPROACH -15.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. MID LEVEL
DECK IS MOVING ACROSS THE SITES BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
09-10Z. VERY LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCE IS SMALL
ENOUGH WILL NOT BE ADDED TO TAFS. ALL SITES WILL SCATTER OUT OR
CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, BUT BMI WILL SEE
MID CLOUDS AROUND 8KFT COME BACK IN AT 14Z AND CMI WILL SEE MID
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AT 16Z. MID CLOUDS WILL PUSH DOWN INTO PIA BUT
NOT DEC AND SPI. THE MID CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG I-74 WITH ONLY
SCATTER CLOUDS EXPECTED AT DEC AND SPI. CIG HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 15KFT AT PIA, BMI, AND CMI AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME SOUTHWEST IN SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY, REACHING GUSTS OF 24-25 KTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT PIA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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