615
FXUS63 KILX 162113
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS
FROM NEAR I-72 SOUTHWARD.
- ANOTHER MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, PRECEDING ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) IN WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER
THAN 10 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN IS LIKELY (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM AROUND I-72 SOUTHWARD
WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS PERVASIVE, WITH MELTING BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING, AND INITIALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION, ALLOWING FOG TO FORM EVEN AS
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ADVECTING OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER, BUT STILL NOT UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
WITH THIS IDEA. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S. FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES
BY LATE MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST US, TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WELL INTO
THE NIGHT, WITH THE COLD AIR JUST CATCHING UP TO THE AREA AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE,
BUT ANYTHING OVER AN INCH LOOK VERY UNLIKELY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO TARGET SOUTHEAST IL, WITH AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH, BUT GENERALLY AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR NOTHING FROM I-55 WESTWARD.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE SURGING INTO CENTRAL IL IMMEDIATELY AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOVER
IN THE 20S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DIP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR 10
AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO LOOK ON TRACK SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ENOUGH WIND TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES. MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
AT KSPI, KDEC, AND KCMI WHERE DEEPER SNOW WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS NW 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH, AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS BY 15Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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