600
FXUS63 KILX 170000
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS
FROM NEAR I-72 SOUTHWARD.
- ANOTHER MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, PRECEDING ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) IN WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER
THAN 10 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN IS LIKELY (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM AROUND I-72 SOUTHWARD
WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS PERVASIVE, WITH MELTING BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING, AND INITIALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION, ALLOWING FOG TO FORM EVEN AS
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ADVECTING OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER, BUT STILL NOT UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
WITH THIS IDEA. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S. FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES
BY LATE MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST US, TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WELL INTO
THE NIGHT, WITH THE COLD AIR JUST CATCHING UP TO THE AREA AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE,
BUT ANYTHING OVER AN INCH LOOK VERY UNLIKELY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO TARGET SOUTHEAST IL, WITH AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH, BUT GENERALLY AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR NOTHING FROM I-55 WESTWARD.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE SURGING INTO CENTRAL IL IMMEDIATELY AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOVER
IN THE 20S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DIP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR 10
AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO LOOK ON TRACK SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ENOUGH WIND TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES. MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CMI
AND DEC COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT, RESULTING IN
MVFR VIS. VIS COULD DROP TO 3 OR LESS MILES TOWARD MORNING AT BOTH
SITES, BUT ONLY LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT ARE
OCCURRING AT CMI, BUT THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS, SO WILL
HAVE THEM SCATTERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS TO START AND BE BROKEN THEN
SCATTER OUT AT SPI, DEC, CMI LATE TONIGHT WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND 15KFT AT PIA AND BMI. THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. DURING THE DAY AND AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS PUSHING OVER 25KTS AT ALL SITES.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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