651
FXUS63 KILX 170535
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS
FROM NEAR I-72 SOUTHWARD.
- ANOTHER MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, PRECEDING ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) IN WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER
THAN 10 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN IS LIKELY (50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING OVER THE CWA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT BUT SOME SITES
ARE SEEING WIND DIRECTION OF SOUTHWEST NOW. LOWEST TEMP TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE
BUT MANY OF THE NEW HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING IT ONLY OCCURRING IN
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND REDUCE THE
PATCHY FOG IN THE WEST CENTRAL IL FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE...UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM AROUND I-72 SOUTHWARD
WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS PERVASIVE, WITH MELTING BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING, AND INITIALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION, ALLOWING FOG TO FORM EVEN AS
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ADVECTING OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER, BUT STILL NOT UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
WITH THIS IDEA. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S. FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES
BY LATE MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST US, TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WELL INTO
THE NIGHT, WITH THE COLD AIR JUST CATCHING UP TO THE AREA AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE,
BUT ANYTHING OVER AN INCH LOOK VERY UNLIKELY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO TARGET SOUTHEAST IL, WITH AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH, BUT GENERALLY AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR NOTHING FROM I-55 WESTWARD.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE SURGING INTO CENTRAL IL IMMEDIATELY AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOVER
IN THE 20S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DIP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR 10
AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO LOOK ON TRACK SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ENOUGH WIND TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES. MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
ALL SITES EXCEPT CMI WILL BE VFR TO START WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS AT
ALL SITES. CMI WILL START WITH 5SM BR AND THEN CONTINUE UNTIL
MORNING WITH MVFR VIS OF 3-5SM. CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MID CLOUDS WILL ADVECT OVER SPI, DEC,
AND CMI. THEN, LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVECT QUICKLY OVER THE TAFS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE SITES. WILL KEEP
PIA DRY WITH CIGS OF 6KFT. BMI AND SPI WILL HAVE PRECIP STARTING
AT 03Z AND THEN AT 04Z FOR DEC AND CMI. CIGS FOR ALL 4 OF THESE
SITES WILL BE 3.5-4KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15KTS THROUGH MORNING BUT
THEN INCREASE FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OVER
23KTS AT ALL SITES. BY EVENING PIA, BMI AND SPI WILL SEE SPEEDS
DECREASE, BUT DEC AND CMI WILL HAVE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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