315
FXUS63 KILX 171741
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW MINUS 10 DEGREES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-90%
CHANCE) IN THESE EXTREME COLD VALUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
UPDATES THIS MORNING FOR CLEAR SKIES UNTIL PATCHY THIN CLOUDS MOVE
IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN AND RAIN
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE 40S TODAY,
RANGING FROM LOWER 40S AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE TO UPPER 40S
WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PEORIA LINE. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON
TODAY.
37
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THERE IS SOME LOCALLY DENSE, PATCHY FREEZING FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING, FOCUSED IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. THIS COULD
CAUSE THE MORNING COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS TO BE SLIPPERY IN SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES (SUCH AS BRIDGES). AS THE SUN RISES
HIGHER IN THE SKY, IT SHOULD START DISSIPATING. TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, THE WARMEST IT HAS BEEN IN AWHILE AND WILL
BE FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY START MIXING IN AS IT EXITS THE AREA,
WHERE IT GETS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE TO A DUSTING FROM THE LITTLE BIT OF SNOW THAT MAY FALL.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND ARCTIC
AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE. IT WILL BE FRIGID INTO THE NEW WEEK.
HIGHS WILL ONLY GET TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WITH LOWS
BELOW ZERO, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS ARE TO GET BELOW -10
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (60-90% CHANCE) IN THESE EXTREME COLD VALUES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO "REBOUND" TO THE LOW 30S BY THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
WAYS TO PREPARE FOR THIS EXTREME COLD ARE TO BUNDLE UP WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS, DRIP YOUR FAUCETS, AND BRING IN PETS FROM OUTSIDE.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AS FAR
WEST AS KSPI AND KPIA AROUND 03Z-06Z, HOWEVER THEY COULD LAST AS
LATE AS AROUND 15Z EASTWARD AT KDEC AND KCMI. AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM 05Z-09Z, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO A
SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY
FOR KSPI-KBMI EASTWARD. WINDS S 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO NW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AFTER 05Z-09Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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