780
FXUS63 KILX 172104
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. A
BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF SNOW, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH
FROM I-57 EASTWARD AND I-70 NORTHWARD.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW MINUS 10 DEGREES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (40-90%
CHANCE) IN THESE EXTREME COLD VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TONIGHT, SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL THIS EVENING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA,
CATCHING UP WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES TO AN END BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW
FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF TIME. CURRENT ESTIMATES FROM SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS DEPICT UP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SNOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
IL BEFORE ENDING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN OVER AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY I-57 EASTWARD AND I-70 NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOW 20S NEAR GALESBURG TO LOW 30S AT
LAWRENCEVILLE SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH OF I-72 AND TEENS SOUTH OF I-72 SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE APPROACHING -15
AROUND GALESBURG AND BELOW ZERO VALUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL IL. THE
RISK OF WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW -10 AREAWIDE (-15 FROM AROUND I-74
NORTHWARD) BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT TIMES UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT ENSEMBLES INDICATE PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM AROUND
40 TO 60 PERCENT OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15 FROM I-72
COUNTIES NORTHWARD, -10 TO THE SOUTH). MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK PALTRY, ALTHOUGH WITH A
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION, IT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AS FAR
WEST AS KSPI AND KPIA AROUND 03Z-06Z, HOWEVER THEY COULD LAST AS
LATE AS AROUND 15Z EASTWARD AT KDEC AND KCMI. AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM 05Z-09Z, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO A
SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY
FOR KSPI-KBMI EASTWARD. WINDS S 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO NW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AFTER 05Z-09Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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