420
FXUS63 KILX 180311
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. A
BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF SNOW, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH
FROM I-57 EASTWARD AND I-70 NORTHWARD.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW MINUS 10 DEGREES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (40-90%
CHANCE) IN THESE EXTREME COLD VALUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BASED ON RADAR DATA AND NEW HIRES MODEL DATA, THE RAIN IS MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED POPS IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA, WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
STILL KEPT A CHANCE IN SOME AREAS, BUT HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
PRECIP AND CHANGE SOME OF THE PRECIP INTO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX DID NOT CHANGE THAT THINKING IN THE
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND UPDATED
FORECAST SHOULD ALREADY BE OUT.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TONIGHT, SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL THIS EVENING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA,
CATCHING UP WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES TO AN END BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW
FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF TIME. CURRENT ESTIMATES FROM SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS DEPICT UP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SNOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
IL BEFORE ENDING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN OVER AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY I-57 EASTWARD AND I-70 NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOW 20S NEAR GALESBURG TO LOW 30S AT
LAWRENCEVILLE SATURDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH OF I-72 AND TEENS SOUTH OF I-72 SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE APPROACHING -15
AROUND GALESBURG AND BELOW ZERO VALUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL IL. THE
RISK OF WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW -10 AREAWIDE (-15 FROM AROUND I-74
NORTHWARD) BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT TIMES UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT ENSEMBLES INDICATE PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM AROUND
40 TO 60 PERCENT OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15 FROM I-72
COUNTIES NORTHWARD, -10 TO THE SOUTH). MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK PALTRY, ALTHOUGH WITH A
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION, IT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL THE PRECIP
STARTS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE PRECIP ARRIVES, CIGS
WILL DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH 4SM VIS WITH -RA OR -RASN.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, BUT SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, FIRST AT PIA AND THEN
LAST AT DEC AND CMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY SAT MORNING, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON AND OFF BREEZY AT
ALL SITES SHOWING GUSTS OF 22-24KTS AT TIMES.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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