141
FXUS63 KILX 180815
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 7-9AM. SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLAKES MAY START
TO MIX IN AS IT EXITS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING.
- AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S TODAY, FRIGID AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS LOWER THAN -10 DEGREES
LOOK TO BE A COMMON THEME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
AFTER THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE A
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SET UP. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
IN THE NEXT WEEK IS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE
AREA STARTING TONIGHT. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS, WITH LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILLS TO
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HREF 00Z.18 RUN
SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW -15 DEGREES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-72. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS -15 DEGREES FROM I-
72 COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND -10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY. THE CPC SHOWS THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAVING CENTRAL IL NEAR NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION/
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEASTERN IL HAVING A 35-40% CHANCE OF BELOW
(ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES (PRECIPITATION). NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM NORTHERN CWA TO SOUTHERN CWA: PEORIA, LOW
30S FOR HIGHS & UPPER TEENS FOR LOWS; LAWRENCEVILLE, UPPER 30S FOR
HIGHS & LOW 20S FOR LOWS.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT DEC AND CMI,
NEXT 24HRS. DEC AND CMI WILL STILL SEE RAIN AND POSSIBLE MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. BOTH SHOULD BE DONE
WITH THE PRECIP BY 10-11Z. THEN VFR FOR BOTH SITES THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BE AROUND
5-6KFT WITH CIGS AROUND 3.5KFT AT CMI AND DEC WHEN THE PRECIP IS
AROUND. BELIEVE ALL SITES WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING WITH
ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON AT PIA TO THE
EVENING AT DEC AND CMI. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST SITES,
BUT PIA HAD ALREADY SWITCHED FOR NORTHWEST. BMI, SPI, DEC, AND CMI
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND THEN CLOSER
TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS AT PIA, BMI AND SPI, WITH DEC AND CMI STILL
BREEZY WITH GUSTS ROUND 20KTS. ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF
WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS OF 23-26KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IN
THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL REDUCE AND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15KTS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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