215
FXUS63 KILX 181548
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
948 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 7-9AM. SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLAKES MAY START
TO MIX IN AS IT EXITS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING.
- AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S TODAY, FRIGID AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS LOWER THAN -10 DEGREES
LOOK TO BE A COMMON THEME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT, AND HAS SHIFTED
EAST INTO IN AND KY AS OF MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION, FOR EXAMPLE, AT SPRINGFIELD TEMPS FELL FROM 30
DEGF AT 6AM/12Z TO 27 DEGF AT 9AM/15Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM 5
TO 20 DEGREES (COLDER WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT), AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THOSE
VALUES SUGGEST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT IS SHARPLY COLDER TODAY
COMPARED TO THE 40 DEGREE WEATHER THAT WAS IN PLACE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM, TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IA
WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. 12Z GUIDANCE APPEARS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, BUT HEADLINE DECISIONS HAVE NOT YET BEEN FINALIZED OR
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
ERWIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
AFTER THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE A
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SET UP. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
IN THE NEXT WEEK IS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE
AREA STARTING TONIGHT. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS, WITH LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILLS TO
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HREF 00Z.18 RUN
SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW -15 DEGREES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-72. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS -15 DEGREES FROM
I-72 COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND -10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY. THE CPC SHOWS THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAVING CENTRAL IL NEAR NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION/
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEASTERN IL HAVING A 35-40% CHANCE OF BELOW
(ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES (PRECIPITATION). NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM NORTHERN CWA TO SOUTHERN CWA: PEORIA, LOW
30S FOR HIGHS & UPPER TEENS FOR LOWS; LAWRENCEVILLE, UPPER 30S FOR
HIGHS & LOW 20S FOR LOWS.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ALL THE TERMINALS, THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE WHOLE,
THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM, NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO.
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY
START TO PICK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WEST OF KPIA-KSPI.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH CEILINGS CLOSER TO 4000 FEET
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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