416
FXUS63 KILX 181703
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1103 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 7-9AM. SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLAKES MAY START
TO MIX IN AS IT EXITS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING.
- AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S TODAY, FRIGID AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS LOWER THAN -10 DEGREES
LOOK TO BE A COMMON THEME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT, AND HAS SHIFTED
EAST INTO IN AND KY AS OF MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION, FOR EXAMPLE, AT SPRINGFIELD TEMPS FELL FROM 30
DEGF AT 6AM/12Z TO 27 DEGF AT 9AM/15Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM 5
TO 20 DEGREES (COLDER WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT), AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THOSE
VALUES SUGGEST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT IS SHARPLY COLDER TODAY
COMPARED TO THE 40 DEGREE WEATHER THAT WAS IN PLACE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM, TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IA
WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. 12Z GUIDANCE APPEARS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, BUT HEADLINE DECISIONS HAVE NOT YET BEEN FINALIZED OR
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
ERWIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
AFTER THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE A
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SET UP. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
IN THE NEXT WEEK IS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE
AREA STARTING TONIGHT. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS, WITH LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILLS TO
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HREF 00Z.18 RUN
SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW -15 DEGREES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-72. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS -15 DEGREES FROM
I-72 COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND -10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY. THE CPC SHOWS THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAVING CENTRAL IL NEAR NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION/
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEASTERN IL HAVING A 35-40% CHANCE OF BELOW
(ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES (PRECIPITATION). NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FROM NORTHERN CWA TO SOUTHERN CWA: PEORIA, LOW
30S FOR HIGHS & UPPER TEENS FOR LOWS; LAWRENCEVILLE, UPPER 30S FOR
HIGHS & LOW 20S FOR LOWS.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 15 KNOTS, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KCMI SHOULD BE
SHIFTING AWAY BY 18Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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