796
FXUS63 KILX 192305
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
505 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS, LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO, AND MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 BELOW
TO 20 BELOW.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
- THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF MONTANA,
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE, A SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS SFC PATTERN HAS KEPT CONTINUED BREEZY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ILX CWA, AND WIND CHILL
VALUES AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 0 TO 15 BELOW. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUD STREETS EVER SO
GRADUALLY THINNING FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS E IL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL NEAR ZERO DEGREES.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER, BUT NOT CALM, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING TOO FAR. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR AREA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS
OUTPERFORMED EACH OF THE LAST TWO DAYS, INCLUDING THE UNEXPECTED
FLURRIES THAT OCCURRED TODAY. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
CLOUD BASES TOMORROW THAN TODAY, LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES OCCURS DESPITE AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. OPTED TO ADD A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF
FLURRIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT FLURRIES OCCUR, THE APPROACH OF THAT
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THE TEMPS DO
WARM A BIT ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE
ENCROACHING SFC RIDGE, WINDS WILL STILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15
MPH, KEEPING AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. AN ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS LOWS FALL TO 5 ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO AND MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST HREF HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF MINIMUM WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW
ZERO SOUTH OF I-72, AND A 60-90% CHANCE NORTH OF I-72.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPS MODERATE AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WED-FRI ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. A DEEPER TROUGH IS
SET TO DIG TOWARDS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. THE 6-HOURLY
POPS FROM THE NBM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF
PRECIP OUT OF THIS WAVE, HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF AT A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A CLOSER
LOOK AT THE NBM PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.01" OF PRECIP DURING
THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD (WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS) IS 20-30%,
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AS NOTED YESTERDAY, FLOW NEAR THE
GULF WILL BE OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO MOISTURE CONTENT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE LOW. THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW
(GREATER THAN 0.1") AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS JUST 5-10%.
ERWIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
CLEARING SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. WNW WINDS TO LOSE GUSTINESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
REMAIN BRISK AT 10-12 KT OVERNIGHT, TURNING WEST LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ALSO BRINGS SCT/BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ILZ027>030-036-
040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ILZ031-037-038-
041>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page