679
FXUS63 KILX 201710
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS, LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO, AND MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -25
DEGREES.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
- THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL IL TODAY. AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS, IT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH IT. LOOKING OUTSIDE, A DUSTING MAY BE SEEN BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL (< 0.5 INCH). TIMING OF THIS QUICK
WAVE LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING (00Z-06Z).
THE HEADLINE FOR THE DAY, HOWEVER, IS THE EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING UNTIL
NOON. WIND CHILLS ARE RANGING FROM -10 TO -20 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A "WARM UP" THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, RATHER THAN SINGLE
DIGITS, WITH WIND CHILLS CLOSER TO ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE SUN SINKS THIS EVENING, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BACK BELOW -10
DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 03Z
(9PM). WE WILL SEE LOWS OF -7 TO 4 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS OF -20
TO
-10. THERE IS AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -
25 DEGREES OVERNIGHT NORTH OF I-74.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD START RELAXING SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
HAVE ONE MORE BITTER COLD NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND STARTS. LIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHERLY (AND
BREEZIER) TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO
OUR EAST, ALLOWING WAA TO KICK IN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL SHOW
IMPROVEMENT, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. BY SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH, THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
WITH THE INCREASE WAA WEDNESDAY AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30% CHANCE) OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES OVER THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING, THE P-TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN.
HOWEVER, SINCE IT WILL BE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE
TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SO A SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS VFR
CEILINGS, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHWEST IOWA ARE MVFR,
AND GUIDANCE HAS HAD A POOR HANDLE ON CEILINGS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST HREF MODEL SUITE HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE I-74 TERMINALS, SO OPTED TO INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP IN THE TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH THE SNOW AND MVFR
CEILING POTENTIAL. AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN, A WEAK FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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