276
FXUS63 KILX 201945
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL TOP OUT 10 TO 20 BELOW FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR I-74 APPROACHING -25
DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- A WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD BRING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNDER AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BITTERLY COLD TO START THE WEEK...
THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG 1050+MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO KANSAS CITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD MORNING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
A RESULT. LOWS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIP BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH OF I-70 AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR
APPROACHING 25 BELOW. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW POSSIBLE...
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AN ACCOMPANYING PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY
ALLOW A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF
THE VERY COLD AIR MASS. HREF LPMM INDICATES A FEW NARROW SWATHS OF
A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
TEMPS MODERATING LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST DRIVING A MORE MODERATE AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WILL RETURN TO THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA. LREF 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN AN
INCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PWATS ARE LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE FRONT.
WHILE THE WARMING TREND MAY BE STALLED FOR A DAY FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW EVEN WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORE
WIDESPREAD 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME 40S
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-72.
DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS VFR
CEILINGS, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHWEST IOWA ARE MVFR,
AND GUIDANCE HAS HAD A POOR HANDLE ON CEILINGS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST HREF MODEL SUITE HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE I-74 TERMINALS, SO OPTED TO INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP IN THE TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH THE SNOW AND MVFR
CEILING POTENTIAL. AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN, A WEAK FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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