764
FXUS63 KILX 210520
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL TOP OUT 10 TO 20 BELOW FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR I-74 APPROACHING -25
DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- A WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD BRING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNDER AN INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
AS SEEN ON RADAR, NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SNOW IS JUST FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT THE SNOW OCCURRING UNDER THE BAND ON RADAR, VIS IS
REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS/WX NEEDS
TO BE REFINED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE ON THE BACK SIDE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS. UPDATE
SHOULD BE COMING OUT SOON.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BITTERLY COLD TO START THE WEEK...
THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG 1050+MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO KANSAS CITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD MORNING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
A RESULT. LOWS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIP BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH OF I-70 AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR
APPROACHING 25 BELOW. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW POSSIBLE...
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AN ACCOMPANYING PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY
ALLOW A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF
THE VERY COLD AIR MASS. HREF LPMM INDICATES A FEW NARROW SWATHS OF
A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
TEMPS MODERATING LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST DRIVING A MORE MODERATE AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WILL RETURN TO THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA. LREF 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN AN
INCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PWATS ARE LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE FRONT.
WHILE THE WARMING TREND MAY BE STALLED FOR A DAY FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW EVEN WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORE
WIDESPREAD 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME 40S
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-72.
DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HOWEVER,
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
AND EFFECT BMI AND CMI ONLY. THIS WILL LAST ABOUT AN HOUR AT BMI
AND POSSIBLE TWO AT CMI. AS THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH, VIS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 2 MILES AND CIGS WILL DROP TO BELOW 3KFT. WILL HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH THOSE SITES TO COVER IT. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES,
FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS TOMORROW, WITH CLEAR SKIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE OVER 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BECOME LIGHTER...BELOW 10KTS TOMORROW.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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